Click to enlarge.
For the section covering the Buffalo Bills, San Diego Chargers, and San Francisco 49ers, please go HERE.
For the section covering the Jacksonville Jaguars, Oakland Raiders, and St. Louis Rams, please go HERE.
Six potential candidates for relocation to Los Angeles have already been discussed, but I have saved what would have to be considered the biggest surprise for last.
Current Hometown: Minneapolis, Minnesota
2010 Franchise Value: $774 million (30th out of 32 teams)
The Minnesota Vikings have to be the biggest dark horse in the potential LA relocation candidates in discussion. After all, they’re part of the historic NFC North, share iconic rivalries with the Chicago Bears and especially the Green Bay Packers, and have been playing professional football in the Twin Cities for a half century. Despite the fact that they have never won a Super Bowl, the Vikings still remain a widely followed franchise, with their fandom covering a massive swath of the upper Midwest and Great Plains. Vikings fans are energetic, involved, and loyal, reliably packing their home field during good times and bad. Additionally, the team is usually well-followed on the road, with at least a decent amount of purple supporters in the stands no matter where they play.
However, in spite of all these problems, the Vikings have several major problems with their current situation, nearly all of which revolve around their home stadium, the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome. Despite providing for an excellent home field advantage due to its loud stadium noise, the Metrodome is incredibly outdated by modern standards, which limits the earning potential of the team. This is especially evident by their shockingly low franchise value. If you asked a hundred NFL fans how the Vikings ranked against the rest of the league in regards to franchise valuation, I could just about guarantee you that none of them would’ve guessed that they’re the third lowest valued team in the NFL. To be honest, I don’t even think that any would have even assumed that they were even in the bottom ten! The Metrodome’s drawbacks recently came into the limelight during the 2010 season, when heavy snow in Minneapolis caused the Metrodome’s roof to puncture and collapse, videos of which spread like wildfire across the internet.
This collapse forced the Vikings to play their last two home games of the year at alternate sites, losing both and putting to rest even their most far-fetched postseason hopes. It also signified an exclamation point to the continued negotiations that the team has had with the state of Minnesota over the potential to build a new stadium for the Vikings. Hoping to emulate the deal the Minnesota Twins of the MLB received for the partial funding of their new Target Field, the Vikings are seeking public assistance in the construction of a new stadium. While they have had agreements with the local government in the past, any and all public funding plans have fallen apart as the state legislature has expressed continued unwillingness to spend public funds on a new football stadium and the locals are uncertain about public support for funding yet another private sports facility. Additionally, the team’s ownership has stumbled at times as well, no more so than in 2005 when they effectively forced nearby Anoka County to pull out of a public funding agreement when the Vikings announced that their planned stadium would be an open-air facility without any roof, significantly cutting back on the potential avenues for revenue in an attempt by the team to save money. While the Vikings seem to have learned from this mistake, as their current plans are calling for a retractable roof facility, they appear to be no closer to gaining state funding for a new stadium than they were five years ago.
Pros: With all of this in mind, the Vikings have a compelling argument for considering a move to Los Angeles. Despite their long-standing and historic status, they are one of the lowest valued franchises in the league. Even with their fan support, they just can’t seem to get public funding for a new stadium that other teams have received, notably Minnesota’s own Twins, making the ownership feel an intense sense that they’re being unappreciated by state and local politicians. Both of these issues would be solved instantaneously in Los Angeles, where the team would have a choice between two competing (and attractive) stadium options as well the whole-hearted support of state and local politicians. Additionally, the Vikings’ lease at the Metrodome expires in 2011, meaning that there would be no possible financial ramifications of leaving the Minneapolis area if push came to shove. All of these factors weigh heavily in favor of moving to Los Angeles.
Cons: In spite of all that however, moving such an iconic franchise out of the Midwest seems almost unthinkable, especially when their fanbase is so thoroughly energetic in their support of the team. More likely, the Vikings will follow the example of the Colts by using a threat to move to L.A. as a bargaining chip to try to force the state legislature to finally come around and provide partial public assistance in funding a new facility. Such a threat would almost assuredly result in a massive outcry and outpouring of demand that the team stay in the Twin Cities, which would definitely weigh heavily against the state legislature if they continued to refuse public assistance to the team’s construction plans (as well as against the Vikings moving forward with a threatened move).
So, there you have it, the seven teams that could potentially be considering a move to Los Angeles… the Buffalo Bills, San Diego Chargers, San Francisco 49ers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Oakland Raiders, St. Louis Rams and Minnesota Vikings. These teams have been reported by various media outlets and by the people behind the competing stadium plans themselves as the most likely candidates for relocation to L.A. over the past couple years. Obviously, not to say that another team couldn’t jump in and make a surprise move to the City of Angels, or that all of the teams listed over the course of the past couple days are truly considering such an action, but these seven have to be considered the most likely candidates.
All that being said though, is the likelihood of these teams moving all equal? Of course not. Some teams have smaller problems than others, and some are likely only interested in using L.A. as a threat to try to get public support for new stadium construction. I believe that this is likely the case for the Minnesota Vikings and the San Francisco 49ers, whom I truly believe are committed to remaining in the Twin Cities and the Bay Area respectively. If either of these two teams are the ones that make the jump, I would honestly be quite shocked. On a similar note, I likewise believe that the Bills are committed to the Buffalo area so long as their current owner remains alive, nixing the possibility of relocation for hopefully at least a few more years for this franchise. On top of that, due to their presence in southern Ontario, if they were truly considering a relocation, Toronto seems like it would be a more likely home for them than L.A., although certain issues might arise from the Canadian government trying to block an NFL move to protect their Canadian Football League (potentially a topic of discussion for a later blog post).
Additionally, I believe that the troubles experienced by the St. Louis Rams are temporary, even with their recent and dramatic loss in value. They have a young stud in the guise of Sam Bradford and are on the cusp of returning back into the playoffs, which would be a strong tonic to their financial woes in bring back the big bucks. On top of that, despite the questions I previously brought up in their new owners commitment to remain in St. Louis, his Missouri connections are very deep and I don’t think that he’d be willing to move out of the area within the first couple years of his ownership of the team, which is the time table I’m looking at (as are the backers of the competing stadium plans in L.A.). I’d say that the Rams are more likely to move than the Vikings, 49ers, and Bills in the immediate future, but that their relocation potential is lower than the remaining three teams.
That leaves us with three teams remaining, the Jacksonville Jaguars, Oakland Raiders, and San Diego Chargers. Even with their improvements in attendance over the past season, the Jaguars have some of the most questionable finances in the league, exist in a relatively small market surrounded by more entrenched competitors, and still have reason to doubt their fan support. The Raiders have an oddball owner, a hated and mostly incompetent team management staff that has made mistake after mistake when it comes to roster and draft decisions, play in a horrible stadium, and have a history in the L.A. area as well as a still sizable fan presence in the city. The Chargers, despite their success on the field, play in a stadium they want to replace and believe that they aren’t supported by the fans as much as they should be.
However, even among these final three, their chances still are not equal. I’d highlight the Chargers as being the biggest wildcard among these three teams. I believe that they are likely more interested in staying in the San Diego area, as they are in the process of shopping around the surrounding region for a potential home and partner for a new facility. More likely than the Jaguars and the Raiders, I think that they’d be more interested in threatening to move to get what they want in their current surroundings versus actually moving. However, while I’d rank them as being less likely than the Jags and Raiders, I wouldn’t put them on the same level of unlikelihood as the 49ers and Vikings. The Chargers, more so than any other team listed, probably have the most variance in their options. I wouldn’t be surprised if they moved or if they stayed, but they are not even close to being the most or least likely candidate for relocation. Like I already said above, they will be the wild card and will be entirely dependent on if they can get San Diego-area public financing for a new stadium.
That leaves us with the Jaguars and the Raiders, the two teams I’d identify as being the most likely candidates for moving to the City of Angels. Both teams have serious financial problems, with the Raiders having more management and stadium issues plaguing them while the Jaguars are mostly troubled by their questionable market size. These very real issues have weighed heavily on both franchises over the years, to the point where they have to be considering their options in L.A. and are undoubtedly being courted by the competing stadium plans. The Raiders would seem to have a less of a league barrier to a move, as a relocation would not necessitate a divisional realignment as would likely be necessary if the Florida-based Jaguars set up shop in California. However, I’d also rank the inherent structural problems of the Jaguars as being greater than the Raiders, effectively evening their chances.
However, just like how neither team could move and this entire conversation could be for naught, more than one team could make the jump as well. With competing stadium plans, both development groups could very well push for a team of their own and still likely be profitable competing in a two-team Los Angeles area, much in the same way that the region already supports two baseball teams, two hockey teams, and two (perhaps three) basketball teams. Additionally, the backers of the City of Industry bid have already expressed their intention to try to draw two NFL teams to share their facility in the same way that the Jets and the Giants share a home in New Jersey. Despite that, I’d honestly have to say that two L.A. teams is a pie-in-the-sky dream for Los Angeles fans, especially when you remember that the last time the City of Angels had two NFL teams they both abandoned the area within a few months of each other. More likely than not, if the NFL returns to Los Angeles in the near future it will just be one team…
… and if I were a betting man, I’d lay money on it being either the Jaguars or the Raiders.
Yesterday, I covered the prospects of the Buffalo Bills, San Diego Chargers, and San Francisco 49ers moving to Los Angeles. Today, I’ll cover three more prospective teams that could potentially be considering a move to the City of Angels.
Current Hometown: Jacksonville, Florida
2010 Franchise Value: $725 million (32nd out of 32 teams)
Alas, the poor Jaguars, quite possibly the single-most discussed candidate for relocation in the entire league. This franchise has been a question mark in the league ever since they opened up shop as an expansion team in 1995. Despite the fact that they are based in the largest city in Florida (no really, it’s true… Jacksonville is larger than Tampa or even Miami), they sit atop one of the smallest markets in the league thanks to their small metropolitan area and being stuck between the already more established Atlanta Falcons to the north and Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Miami Dolphins to the south. Additionally, as their misfortune would have it, they are located in the AFC South, a division that has been dominated by arguably one of the greatest quarterbacks in league history, the Indianapolis Colts’ iconic Peyton Manning. While they have managed to put together very quality seasons, most notably their sensational 14-2 regular season record in 1999 that saw them battle all the way to the conference championship, even that high-point was marred by bitter disappointment when both of their regular season losses and their eventual playoff defeat all came at the hands of just one team, the divisional rival Tennessee Titans. Since that highwater mark, they have only reached the postseason twice and have not won their current division, the AFC South, since it was founded in 2002.
The Jags have been going downhill pretty much ever since then, albeit with flickering bright spots here and there. The team’s fanbase seems understandably exasperated with their on-field performance. In 2005, plummeting attendance forced the team to permanently cover 10,000 seats in their home stadium with tarps to reduce their potential capacity and avoid bearing the wrath of the NFL’s blackout policy, which stipulates that any home game that is not sold out with 72-hours of kickoff will not be aired in the home market. Even with this desperate measure, along with reducing ticket prices and even flat out giving away tickets, the team has lead the league in blackouts in recent years. 2009 was their utter low point, when average home game attendance for their season was only 40,000 (by far the lowest in the league), prompting 7 out of their 8 home games to be blacked out in the Jacksonville market. While 2010 was a major turnaround for them, almost reaching the playoffs and increasing their overall attendance by league-leading 36.5%, this improvement was still blemished by the fact that their overall value was calculated as still being the lowest in the entire league by Forbes. And, even with their big bump in fan attendance over the past season, their value still dropped precipitously in value from 2009 to 2010, from $866 million to $725 million.
Pros: Due to these problems, the Jaguars have logically been widely identified as one of the most likely targets for relocation to Los Angeles. As they are currently the lowest-valued franchise and play in a market many question as being even large enough to support an NFL team, the Jags honestly seem like an almost perfect fit for L.A. The franchise’s financial situation would significantly improve if they moved to the United States’ second largest media market, one which could definitely support a team with not only a sizable fanbase but also significant corporate support, something which has mostly escaped the team in northern Florida.
Cons: Truth be told… there really are only two real cons to the team moving to L.A. Firstly, 2010 was a banner year for the franchise, even with their lose in franchise value. They were a mere game away from reaching the playoffs this season and saw the single largest boost in attendance while the rest of the league was mostly stagnant in their draw. Secondly, moving from Florida to California would likely necessitate divisional realignment, as having teams in Indiana, Tennessee, Texas, and California would be a bit spread out for a single division. However, the potential profit margins for the team and the league in the guise of increased revenues from merchandising, ticket sales, and television ratings could possibly make these very real drawbacks worthwhile.
Current Hometown: Oakland, California
2010 Franchise Value: $758 million (31st out of 32 teams)
Of all the teams currently under consideration for relocation, the Oakland Raiders have to be viewed as the team that would probably make the best fit in L.A. Having previously existed as the Los Angeles Raiders from 1982-1994, they still have a sizable fanbase and presence in the city even after their heart-breaking return to the Bay Area. Support for this team to return to L.A. would be overwhelming and they would likely be welcomed like conquering heroes should they ever set up shop in the City of Angeles again. More so than probably any other team, the Raiders fit the mold for almost all the prerequisites that you would expect to find in a team seriously considering relocation.
First of all, their franchise value is downright abysmal. While the Jaguars managed to overtake them as the least-valued franchise in the league over the past year, they still managed to drop in value by approximately $40 million from 2009 to 2010. To make matters worse, the Raiders play in one of the worst facilities in North American sports, the Oakland-Alameda County Stadium. While most of the hatred of the facility rightfully comes from the Athletics of the MLB, who also use the stadium, it is still very outdated by all possible football standards and is in bad need for retrofitting or outright replacement. The Raiders also have a horrible ownership in place, headed up by the ancient and confrontational Al Davis, who many have questioned from a city loyalty standpoint as well as from a competency perspective, especially after his high-profile and controversial trade of coach John Gruden to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in exchange for cash and draft picks (which were subsequently squandered anyway). Finally, the team has proven to be a habitual no-show on the field, oftentimes being among the worst teams in the league, and are not much better off-the field, most exemplified by their now-commonplace draft busts which have seen them sink countless millions into unproven and ultimately unsuccessful players time and time again (nowhere more evident than in JaMarcus Russell, the biggest draft bust in NFL history). All of these factors have combined to form an environment that, despite recent efforts to the contrary, seem to almost expect losing and an atmosphere that most players seem to want to avoid at all possible costs.
Pros: See just about everything above. If the Raiders went back to L.A., they’d instantly be playing in a larger, wealthier market that players would be interested in joining and would have their pick of not one, but two competing stadium plans, each of which would be a dramatic improvement over their current home.
Cons: There is one thing and one thing only going for the Raiders staying in Oakland, and that’s their fans. Despite having had some issues selling out and having a few blackouts over the years, the Raiders fanbase is one of the most intense and energetic in the entire league, even when the product on the field in downright atrocious. If the Raiders moved to Los Angeles, they would raise a massive stink and do every conceivable thing in their power to either prevent the move or to make as much noise as possible about it, and it would be very questionable that L.A. fans would be willing to put up with as much failure as Oakland fans have accepted over the years.
Current Hometown: St. Louis, Missouri
2010 Franchise Value: $779 million (29th out of 32 teams)
Like the Chargers and the Raiders, the Rams are yet another relocation candidate that had previously called Los Angeles home. Despite putting together the “greatest show on turf” in the late 90’s and early 00’s, wherein they managed to bring the Lombardi Trophy back to St. Louis, the Rams have been a troubled franchise ever since. Like pretty much every other team on this list, the Rams have been suffering from declining attendance and profits and currently play in a facility that they believe they have long since outgrown. They have been hit especially hard by this poor economy, astonishingly dropping over $130 million in value from last season to this season, despite signing QB phenom Sam Bradford and almost reaching the playoffs thanks to playing in the historically weak NFC West this past season. In spite of a big on-field improvement from 2009 to 2010, their home attendance was still fairly low, ranking as the third lowest overall in the entire league.
To make matters even potentially more complicated, the Rams changed ownership over the past year, trading hands to Stan Kroenke, the owner of the NHL’s Colorado Avalanche, the NBA’s Colorado Nuggets, and majority shareholder of the Arsenal Football Club of the English Premier League, as well as several other sporting ventures. While he does need to relinquish majority ownership of his two Denver-based teams to his son by 2014, as part of an NFL rule that doesn’t allow team owners to control majority control of other sports franchises located in other markets, his past successful sporting experience was viewed with hope and trepidation at the same time. While he is originally from St. Louis and went to school at Mizzou, the state’s flagship institution, there are concerns as to exactly how committed he really is to keeping the team in St. Louis. If he receives the right offer from one of the two proposed two stadium groups in Los Angeles, who’s to say that he wouldn’t jump at the opportunity to make his investment suddenly become a billion-dollar franchise?
Pros: Lackluster attendance, a stadium that needs continual upgrades, and a questionable commitment to staying in St. Louis all have to weigh heavily against the odds of this team remaining in St. Louis. Additionally, in spite of the closer connection that the Raiders may have with their former home, the ex-Los Angeles Rams would still be welcomed back with open arms by L.A. residents. Additionally, even though they are over 1,800 miles to the east of Los Angeles, the St. Louis Rams already play in the NFC West, meaning that there would be no need whatsoever to realign the divisions, as would be likely be the case if the Bills or Jaguars moved.
Cons: Despite the questionable commitment that Kroenke may have for staying in St. Louis, the fact of the matter is that he still has deep connections to the area and that could be enough to anchor him down. Additionally, the team, despite their drop in value, has every indicator of a franchise on the rise, with a potential future star in the guise of Sam Bradford and a market that has shown to be more than capable of successfully supporting major sports teams, meaning that the negatives that the team is currently facing are much less than what other teams are experiencing.
Coming up next will be the third and final entry to this article, which will cover a final, dark house franchise that could be considering moving to Los Angeles, as well as a recap and overview of the likelihood of teams I’ve gone over actually moving to L.A. in the foreseeable future.
Considering that I have already written an article on the competing stadium bids in Los Angeles that are currently being considered in an effort to draw an NFL team back to the City of Angels, I figured that it might be a good idea to discuss a list of potential teams that could make the jump to L.A. Each of the options listed below have very real problems with their current home situations and would likely benefit from a move to Los Angeles, but they likewise all have major barriers and could negatives consequences that might potentially block any such move.
For the sake of convenience, I will just order the teams by alphabetical order. Additionally, due to the amount of subject material and number of teams that will be discussed, I will be splitting this up into three parts. Today’s entry will cover the first three potential teams, tomorrow’s entry will cover even more relocation possibilities, and the final part providing a round-up and synopsis will be posted on the day after that.
Current Hometown: Orchard Park, New York (suburb of Buffalo)
2010 Franchise Value: $799 million (28th out of 32 teams)
The Buffalo Bills are an unfortunate franchise. Despite managing to put together an AFC dynasty in the early 90’s that saw them appear in four consecutive Super Bowls, the franchise has unfortunately never won the Super Bowl in their over four decades in the league (though they did win two AFL championships prior to the NFL-AFL merger). Since their fourpeat failure to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, the Bills have been experiencing a long and harrowing decline into mediocrity. Playing in the very tough AFC East against the perennial New England Patriots, the sometimes high-quality Miami Dolphins, and the recent upstart New York Jets, the Bills have been squeezed into the cellar and have not made it into the playoffs in this new millennium.
Despite boasting one of the most loyal and passionate fanbases in the league, the Bills have additionally suffered as economic downturns have hurt their already fairly small market, eating away at the revenues that the team can raise. To make matters worse, in a desperate effort to bring in some money, the team has scheduled five regular season home games to be played in Toronto from 2008 to 2012, raising speculation and fears that the franchise was testing the waters for a potential move to Toronto. Despite their beloved owner’s assurances, there is still wide-spread concern that the Bills could very well move in the near future, and many even fear that there will literally be nothing holding the next generation of the team’s ownership in Western New York once Ralph Wilson passes away.
Pros: Playing in a small market and in an old stadium, the Bills obviously have to be considered a major candidate for relocation to Los Angeles. The prospect of playing in the second largest media market in the nation, in a brand new stadium (whether it ends up being the Los Angeles Stadium in the City of Industry or Farmers Field in downtown L.A.), the Bills would undoubtedly receive a massive economic boost if they jumped from Buffalo to the City of Angels. Additionally, and I hate to bring this up, but the age of the team’s owner is also a factor, as his heirs could very well be looking into possibly liquidating the team for the franchise’s hundreds of millions of dollars in value once Ralph Wislon passes away, something which the principals behind both stadium projects in L.A. could very easily afford.
Cons: Despite their issues, the Bills fanbase is extraordinarily energetic and would definitely put up a major fight if the team tried to leave. Additionally, based on their own already-existent fanbase in Ontario, if the Bills really were contemplating relocation, Toronto seems like it would be a much better fit for the team. Finally, a move from the Eastern Time Zone to the Pacific Time Zone would likely result in a need for the league to reorganize their current divisional alignment, as it would be very unlikely to think that the NFL would want to have an eastern division with a franchise in California… although, now that I think about it, having rival teams from New York, Boston, Miami, and Los Angeles all in the same division might very well be a very attractive prospect to the NFL…
Current Hometown: San Diego, California
2010 Franchise Value: $907 million (24th out of 32 teams)
The San Diego Chargers might, at first glance, seem like a very odd relocation potential. After all, despite their habitual early season troubles, the Chargers have been regular playoff contenders over the past couple years, highlighted by the fact that they won the AFC West four straight seasons from 2006-2009. Additionally, they have an extremely solid core of talent, centered around arguably the best active quarterback in the league right now that doesn’t have a Super Bowl ring, Phillip Rivers.
In spite of these obvious pluses though, the Chargers have built up a reputation as being underachievers come playoff time. Despite reaching the AFC Championship following the 2007 season, the franchise has onlyo reached the Super Bowl once in their entire existence, and have yet to win it. Their poor early season play coupled with their inability to reach the big game in the playoffs has somewhat hurt their draw, leading to empty seats that you wouldn’t expect to find in a regular playoff contender like the Chargers.
To make matters worse, the Chargers view their current home, Qualcomm Stadium, as being horribly out of date and not very pleasant for the fans from an atmosphere perspective. Most recently, during the lead up to the scheduled college Poinsettia Bowl that takes place annually in San Diego, Qualcomm was severely flooded following heavy rains, making national news for having temporarily taken on the appearance of lake prepared to host a veritable Roman naumachia (naval battle). While the game went off mostly without a hitch after the million or so gallons of rain water were pumped out of the stadium, the damage from the rain is still being investigated.
Pros: The Chargers have most of the features that you would expect to see from a team contemplating a move. A fanbase not as loyal as they believe they deserve, an outdated stadium that badly needs to be replaced, and a potential nearby relocation site that would be many times larger and more profitable than their current home. And the team has more or less admitted that they would consider relocation if a planned (though unpopular) 2012 ballot measure to allow for public funding of a new stadium doesn’t go through. With the measure, as of right now, unlikely to even appear on the ballot in 2012, much less pass, you have to consider the Chargers as a very likely candidate for relocation, especially as they were actually originally founded in Los Angeles and could label the relocation as a triumphant homecoming even though almost no one remembers the short days they spent in L.A.
Cons: While the franchise would undoubtedly benefit from the short move to L.A., they would kiss all potential SoCal support from outside the L.A. area goodbye if they ever abandoned San Diego. Additionally, despite some of the problems that San Diego has had, it still remains a large market that the NFL would likely not be willing to let go of so easily. Finally, the threat of moving to Los Angeles could very well be used to drum up support to pass the ballot measure to fund a new home for the team in San Diego, much in the same way that the Colts owners did following a visit to Los Angeles prior to receiving public funds for the construction of their new Lucas Oil Stadium.
Current Hometown: San Francisco, California
2010 Franchise Value: $925 million (22nd out of 32 teams)
The second, but not last, California team to make the list, the San Francisco 49ers are also another seemingly odd potential relocation target. After all, the franchise has an incredibly rich tradition as the oldest major professional sports franchise on the West Coast. They had two all-time great quarterbacks, Joe Montana and Steve Young, as well as arguably the greatest single NFL player in history, wide receiver Jerry Rice, on their roster of Hall of Fame 49ers. Additionally, the Niners are tied for second with most Super Bowl wins in NFL history at five with the Dallas Cowboys and behind only the Pittsburgh Steelers with six Lombardi Trophy wins. Finally, they have a rich and ingrained tradition in the Bay Area, being as much of a part of San Francisco as just about any other institution in the region and have a passionate fanbase spread across much of California.
So why include the 49ers on this list? One reason… their stadium. Candlestick Park, despite being an iconic and historic landmark, has not weathered the passage of time very well. While not the oldest stadium in the NFL (Lambeau Field in Green Bay is 3 years older and Soldier Field in Chicago is over 35 years older), Candlestick remains the oldest park to have not received major renovations. So, while Lambeau has weathered the passage of time phenomenally due to several upgrades, and Soldier Field was practically completely rebuilt in 2003, Candlestick more or less remains the same as it was in 1960, aside from changes that were made in the 70’s to allow baseball to be played there.
As a result, 49er ownership have been pushing hard for the construction of a new stadium over the past several years. While San Francisco voters did approve a $100 million bond to publically finance the construction of a new stadium in 1997, a series of screw-ups by the franchise and the firm contracted to design a new stadium prevented the plan from every really developing. The 49ers again seemingly dropped the ball in 2006 as part of San Francisco’s attempted bid to become a candidate city for the 2016 Summer Olympic Games. The construction of an Olympic Stadium that would become the new home of the Niners was paramount in this plan, but the team refused to agree to city requests regarding the location of the stadium and size of the Olympic Village, eventually leading to the outright cancellation of not only the new stadium plan, but also of the entire Olympic bid, much to the anger of the city and local residents alike. This lead to a massive outcry against the Niners ownership and, coupled with reports that they were considering moving elsewhere in the Bay Area, even resulted in discussion on the floor of the California legislature to pass a bill barring the 49ers from building a new stadium within a hundred-mile radius if they ever left San Francisco (though this bill failed to pass).
Pros: Despite their long history, the 49ers have in recent years built up an obvious antagonistic relationship between themselves and their hometown. As a result, they have been looking for chances to move out since even before the aborted Olympic bid was dead. While they have in recent years looked to nearby Santa Clara for the construction of a new stadium, the team has yet again been running into a series of delays that have prevented their plans from moving forward. This is in spite of the passage of a public bond to partially fund a new $937 million stadium for the franchise and tentative plans to begin construction in 2012. If delays continue to hamper their plans in Santa Clara, the possibility of potentially moving to San Francisco instead with two competing stadium options on the table could be viewed as a very attractive alternative.
Cons: If leaving their historic San Francisco environs was bad, then completely abandoning the entire Bay Area would be catastrophic. A potential move for such an iconic franchise would be vehemently opposed, not only by local residents and fans, but also by elected officials and other civic leaders as well, which could very likely put enough pressure on the team to prevent a move from taking place. Additionally, Santa Clara has already shown a willingness to work with the team in funding a new stadium closer to their own backyard, so a move to Los Angeles at this point in time honestly does seem very unlikely, even if just used as a threat to try to get more concessions from the local government.
Tomorrow, I will continue this story with part two, which will cover more potential relocation targets. Stay tuned!
As promised yesterday, here are the Forbes Magazine team valuations from 2010. There were a few big winners and a few big, big losers, but let’s just list ’em all and see what we’ve got, shall we?
1. Dallas Cowboys – $1,805 million – NFL
2. New York Yankees – $1,600 million – MLB
3. Washington Redskins – $1,550 million – NFL
4. New England Patriots – $1,367 million – NFL
5. New York Giants – $1,182 million – NFL
6. Houston Texans – $1,171 million – NFL
7. New York Jets – $1,144 million – NFL
8. Philadelphia Eagles – $1,119 million – NFL
9. Baltimore Ravens – $1,073 million – NFL
10. Chicago Bears – $1,067 million – NFL
11. Denver Broncos – $1,049 million – NFL
12. Indianapolis Colts – $1,040 million – NFL
13. Carolina Panthers – $1,037 million – NFL
14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $1,032 million – NFL
15. Green Bay Packers – $1,018 million – NFL
16. Cleveland Browns – $1,015 million – NFL
17. Miami Dolphins – $1,011 million – NFL
18. Pittsburgh Steelers – $996 million – NFL
19. Tennessee Titans – $994 million – NFL
20. Seattle Seahawks – $989 million – NFL
21. Kansas City Chiefs – $965 million – NFL
22. New Orleans Saints – $955 million – NFL
23. San Francisco 49ers – $925 million – NFL
24. Arizona Cardinals – $919 million – NFL
25. San Diego Chargers – $907 million – NFL
26. Cincinnati Bengals – $905 million – NFL
27. Boston Red Sox – $870 million – MLB
28. New York Mets – $858 million – MLB
29. Atlanta Falcons – $831 million – NFL
30. Detroit Lions – $817 million – NFL
31. Buffalo Bills – $799 million – NFL
32. St. Louis Rams – $779 million – NFL
33. Minnesota Vikings – $774 million – NFL
34. Oakland Raiders – $758 million – NFL
35. Los Angeles Dodgers – $727 million – MLB
36. Chicago Cubs – $726 million – MLB
37. Jacksonville Jaguars – $725 million – NFL
38. New York Knicks – $655 million – NBA
39. Los Angeles Lakers – $643 million – NBA
40. Philadelphia Phillies – $537 million – MLB
41. Los Angeles Angels – $521 million – MLB
42. Chicago Bulls – $511 million – NBA
43. Toronto Maple Leafs – $505 million – NHL
44. St. Louis Cardinals – $488 million – MLB
45. San Francisco Giants – $482 million – MLB
46. Chicago White Sox – $466 million – MLB
47. New York Rangers – $461 million – NHL
48. Houston Astros – $453 million – MLB
49. Boston Celtics – $452 million – NBA
50. Texas Rangers – $451 million – MLB
51. Atlanta Braves – $451 million – MLB
52. Houston Rockets – $443 million – NBA
53. Seattle Mariners – $439 million – MLB
54. Dallas Mavericks – $438 million – NBA
55. Miami Heat – $425 million – NBA
56. Phoenix Suns – $411 million – NBA
57. San Diego Padres – $408 million – MLB
58. Montreal Canadiens – $408 million – NHL
59. Minnesota Twins – $405 million – MLB
60. San Antonio Spurs – $404 million – NBA
61. Toronto Raptors – $399 million – NBA
62. Cleveland Indians – $391 million – MLB
63, Washington Nationals – $387 million – MLB
64. Orlando Magic – $385 million – NBA
65. Colorado Rockies – $384 million – MLB
66. Arizona Diamondbacks – $379 million – MLB
67. Baltimore Orioles – $376 million – MLB
68. Detroit Tigers – $375 million – MLB
69. Golden State Warriors – $363 million – NBA
70. Detroit Pistons – $360 million – NBA
71. Portland Trail Blazers – $356 million – NBA
72. Cleveland Cavaliers – $355 million – NBA
73. Milwaukee Brewers – $351 million – MLB
74. Utah Jazz – $343 million – NBA
75. Kansas City Royals – $341 million – MLB
76. Cincinnati Reds – $331 million – MLB
77. Philadelphia 76ers – $330 million – NBA
78. Oklahoma City Thunder – $329 million – NBA
79. Toronto Blue Jays – $326 million – MLB
80. Washington Wizards – $322 million – NBA
81. Florida Marlins – $317 million – MLB
82. Tampa Bay Rays – $316 million – MLB
83. Denver Nuggets – $316 million – NBA
84. Detroit Red Wings – $315 million – NHL
85. New Jersey Nets – $312 million – NBA
86. Los Angeles Clippers – $305 million – NBA
87. Boston Bruins – $302 million – NHL
88. Philadelphia Flyers – $301 million – NHL
89. Chicago Blackhawks – $300 million – NHL
90. Oakland Athletics – $295 million – MLB
91. Atlanta Hawks – $295 million – NBA
92. Sacramento Kings – $293 million – NBA
93. Pittsburgh Pirates – $289 million – MLB
94. Charlotte Bobcats – $281 million – NBA
95. New Orleans Hornets – $280 million – NBA
96. Indiana Pacers – $269 million – NBA
97. Memphis Grizzlies – $266 million – NBA
98. Minnesota Timberwolves – $264 million – NBA
99. Vancouver Canucks – $262 million – NHL
100. Milwaukee Bucks – $258 million – NBA
101. Pittsburgh Penguins – $235 million – NHL
102. Dallas Stars – $227 million – NHL
103. New Jersey Devils – $218 million – NHL
104. Los Angeles Kings – $ 215 million – NHL
105. Calgary Flames – $206 million – NHL
106. Minnesota Wild – $202 million – NHL
107. Colorado Avalanche – $198 million – NHL
108. Washington Capitals – $197 million – NHL
109. Ottawa Senators – $196 million – NHL
110. San Jose Sharks – $194 million – NHL
111. Anaheim Ducks – $188 million – NHL
112. Edmonton Oilers – $183 million – NHL
113. Buffalo Sabres – $169 million – NHL
114. Florida Panthers – $168 million – NHL
115. St. Louis Blues – $165 million – NHL
116. Carolina Hurricanes – $162 million – NHL
117. Columbus Blue Jackets – $153 million – NHL
118. New York Islanders – $151 million – NHL
119. Nashville Predators – $148 million – NHL
120. Tampa Bay Lightning – $145 million – NHL
121. Atlanta Thrashers – $135 million – NHL
122. Phoenix Coyotes – $134 million – NHL
Overall NFL franchise value – $32,718 million
Overall MLB franchise value – $14,741 million
Overall NBA franchise value – $11,063 million
Overall NHL franchise value – $6,843 million
Overall Big 4 franchise value – $65,365 million
Average (mean) NFL franchise value – $1,022 million
Average (mean) MLB franchise value – $491 million
Average (mean) NBA franchise value – $369 million
Average (mean) NHL franchise value – $228 million
Most average (mean) NFL franchise – Green Bay Packers (-4 million below mean)
Most average (mean) MLB franchise – St. Louis Cardinals (-3 million below mean)
Most average (mean) NBA franchise – Golden State Warriors (-6 million below mean)
Most average (mean) NHL franchise – Dallas Stars (-1 million below mean)
Highest/Mean (high = unbalanced)
MLB – 325.20%
NHL – $221.49%
NBA – 177.51%
NFL – 176.14%
Lowest/Mean (low = unbalanced)
NHL – 58.77%
MLB – 58.94%
NBA – 69.92%
NFL – 70.94%
Highest/Lowest (high = unbalanced)
MLB – 551.72%
NHL – 376.87%
NBA – 253.88%
NFL – 248.97%
As with yesterday’s post, a lot of information can be gleaned from all of this, so let’s go through a few things that I noticed right away.
First of all, this past year had several big winners and several big losers. While the Cowboys and Yankees saw very noticeable, $100 million boosts to their overall franchise values, there were other teams that were the even bigger winners, some of whom you might not expect. In baseball, the Rangers and the Twins saw large boosts to their value, thanks in no small part to their successful regular seasons and subsequent postseason appearances (not to mention the Twins’ new ballpark, Target Field). The Marlins also benefited greatly, jumping an impressive 15% in franchise value, thanks primarily to the opening of their new stadium looming ever larger on the horizon. In the NBA, teams that made splashes in the free agent market saw impressive increases, with the Knicks and especially the Heat greatly increasing their overall franchise value. Additionally, the Warriors and the Nets saw big jumps thanks to new ownership that have expressed an actual willingness to spend some money. Finally, in the NHL, we saw a bunch of teams benefit in what was one of the strongest hockey seasons in recent memory, with the Rangers, Blackhawks, Canucks, Bruins, Oilers, and especially the Canadiens all showing incredibly strong growths in their overall value.
But, where there are winners, there have to be losers, and there were a lot of losers in the world of professional sports in 2010. In the NFL, three of the most discussed candidates for relocation all saw major drops in value, with the Bills, Rams, and Jaguars all dropping by double digit percentiles. In baseball, there were no real losers per se, but there was a lot of stagnancy as a great deal of the league saw only tiny increases or small to mid drops in value. The NHL saw several teams lose value, but no more than the Tampa Bay Lightning, which saw their value drop by an astonishing 24%. It’s been said that the Tampa Bay area has been hit especially hard by the recent recession, and it looks like the Bolts were the main team to feel the cut as a result of it. But when we’re talking about big losers this past year, look no further than the NBA, which saw two teams take a bath. The Pistons lost fully 1/4 of their overall value in a single year, due to questions over their ownership and difficulty in selling the team and the fact that they’re competing in a busy market against the Wings and Lions. But it was the Cleveland Cavaliers that saw the biggest nosedive in franchise value, losing 26% of their overall worth in 2010 thanks to losing LeBron James and their subsequent… um… let’s just say less than stellar season so far.
Remember when Dan Gilbert, the owner of the Cavaliers, was practically foaming about the mouth when LeBron James left? I think you would too if you figured that your overall worth was going to drop significantly as a result of the decision, and especially when you figure that it’d be by $122 million!
Finally, we have to look a bit past the individual teams and see how the leagues fared this past season. At first glance, it appears as if MLB and NHL are the winners as their overall franchise worth increased while the NFL and NBA were the losers as they saw their values drop. And you’d definitely have an argument for this. The NBA is in pretty bad shape, with the profitability of a number of teams in question and the likelihood of a lockout increasing every day. The NFL, despite a strong year and great ratings (especially for the Super Bowl, which might have been the most watched program in American television history), is facing uncertainty over their labor situation as well.
But if you dig down a bit, you’ll see that the NHL’s situation is at best a wash. While the league saw several big winners, it also saw it devolve into a league of haves and have-nots. While Major League Baseball remains the most top-heavy league in professional sports thanks to the New York Yankees, the NHL actually surpassed the MLB as the most bottom-heavy league, with the bottom quarter of the league either showing drops or inconsequential gains.
More analysis might come later, but as it is now I think that’s more than enough! If you notice anything else, please say so in the comments.
Reading back on my first real entry, and some of the cut material from my second entry, I realized that I should probably give a breakdown on some of the information on how much the teams in the NFL, MLB, NHL, and NBA are worth. All information below is courtesy of Forbes Magazine, which annually releases information about the valuations of all major sports teams in North America. All I’ve done is sort the information and do some math on how the teams in each league average against one another.
I had previously compiled information from 2009, but not 2010. In the meantime, I’ll put together the team valuations from 2010 and put that information up sometime tomorrow so as to compare which teams have gone up and which teams have gone down in the span of a single year.
Without further ado, here are the franchise values of all professional sports teams in the United States and Canada from 2009, sorted by overall value (be forewarned though, this is going to be a bit dry….):
1. Dallas Cowboys – $1,650 million – NFL
2. Washington Redskins – $1,550 million – NFL
3. New York Yankees – $1,500 million – MLB
4. New England Patriots – $1,361 million – NFL
5. New York Giants – $1,183 million – NFL
6. New York Jets – $1,170 million – NFL
7. Houston Texans – $1,150 million – NFL
8. Philadelphia Eagles – $1,123 million – NFL
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $1,085 million – NFL
10. Chicago Bears – $1,082 million – NFL
11. Denver Broncos – $1,081 million – NFL
12. Baltimore Ravens – $1,079 million – NFL
13. Carolina Panthers – $1,049 million – NFL
14. Cleveland Browns – $1,032 million – NFL
15. Kansas City Chiefs – $1,027 million – NFL
16. Indianapolis Colts – $1,025 million – NFL
17. Pittsburgh Steelers – $1,020 million – NFL
18. Green Bay Packers – $1,019 million – NFL
19. Miami Dolphins – $1,015 million – NFL
20. Tennessee Titans – $1,000 million – NFL
21. Seattle Seahawks – $994 million – NFL
22. Cincinnati Bengals – $953 million – NFL
23. New Orleans Saints – $942 million – NFL
24. Arizona Cardinals – $935 million – NFL
25. San Diego Chargers – $917 million – NFL
26. St. Louis Rams – $913 million – NFL
27. New York Mets – $912 million – MLB
28. Buffalo Bills – $909 million – NFL
29. San Francisco 49ers – $875 million – NFL
30. Detroit Lions – $872 million – NFL
T-31. Jacksonville Jaguars – $866 million – NFL
T-31. Atlanta Falcons – $866 million – NFL
33. Minnesota Vikings – $835 million – NFL
34. Boston Red Sox – $833 million – MLB
35. Oakland Raiders – $797 million – NFL
36. Los Angeles Dodgers – $722 million – MLB
37. Chicago Cubs – $700 million – MLB
38. New York Knicks – $613 million – NBA
39. Los Angeles Lakers – $584 million – NBA
40. Los Angeles Angels – $509 million – MLB
41. Chicago Bulls – $504 million – NBA
42. Philadelphia Phillies – $496 million – MLB
43. St. Louis Cardinals – $486 million – MLB
44. Detroit Pistons – $480 million – NBA
45. Cleveland Cavaliers – $477 million – NBA – expect this to drop without LeBron!
46. San Francisco Giants – $471 million – MLB
47. Toronto Maple Leafs – $470 million – NHL
48. Houston Rockets – $469 million – NBA
49. Dallas Mavericks – $466 million – NBA
50. Phoenix Suns – $452 million – NBA
51. Chicago White Sox – $450 million – MLB
52. Boston Celtics – $447 million – NBA
53. Atlanta Braves – $446 million – MLB
54. Houston Astros – $445 million – MLB
55. Seattle Mariners – $426 million – MLB
56. New York Rangers – $416 million – NHL
57. San Antonio Spurts – $415 million – NBA
58. Washington Nationals – $406 million – MLB
59. Texas Rangers – $405 million – MLB
60. San Diego Padres – $401 million – MLB
T-61. Baltimore Orioles – $400 million – MLB
t-61. Toronto Raptors – $400 million – NBA
T-63. Cleveland Indians – $399 million – MLB
T-63. Arizona Diamondbacks – $399 million – MLB
65. Miami Heat – $393 million – NBA – expect this to go up with LeBron!
66. Colorado Rockies – $373 million – MLB
67. Detroit Tigers – $371 million – MLB
68. Philadelphia 76ers – $360 million – NBA
69. Utah Jazz – $358 million – NBA
70. Minnesota Twins – $356 million – MLB
T-71. Toronto Blue Jays – $353 million – MLB
T-71. Washington Wizards – $353 million – NBA
73. Sacramento Kings – $350 million – NBA
74. Orlando Magic – $349 million – NBA
75. Milwaukee Brewers – $347 million – MLB
76. Cincinnati Reds – $342 million – MLB
77. Montreal Canadiens – $339 million – NHL
78. Detroit Red Wings – $337 million – NHL
79. Golden State Warriors – $335 million – NBA
80. Denver Nuggets – $329 million – NBA
81. Tampa Bay Rays – $320 million – MLB
82. Oakland Athletics – $319 million – MLB
83. Kansas City Royals – $314 million – MLB
84. Portland Trail Blazers – $307 million – NBA
85. Atlanta Hawks – $306 million – NBA
86. Indiana Pacers – $303 million – NBA
87. Minnesota Timberwolves – $301 million – NBA
88. Oklahoma City Thunder – $300 million – NBA
89. Los Angeles Clippers – $297 million – NBA
90. New Jersey Nets – $295 million – NBA
91. Memphis Grizzlies – $294 million – NBA
92. Pittsburgh Pirates – $288 million – MLB
93. New Orleans Hornets – $285 million – NBA
94. Charlotte Bobcats – $284 million – NBA
95. Milwaukee Bucks – $278 million – NBA
96. Florida Marlins – $277 million – MLB
97. Philadelphia Flyers – $273 million – NHL
98. Boston Bruins – $271 million – NHL
99. Chicago Blackhawks – $258 million – NHL
100. Dallas Stars – $246 million – NHL
101. Vancouver Canucks – $239 million – NHL
102. New Jersey Devils – $223 million – NHL
103. Pittsburgh Penguins – $222 million – NHL
104. Minnesota Wild – $210 million – NHL
105. Los Angeles Kings – $208 million – NHL
106. Anaheim Ducks – $206 million – NHL
107. Colorado Avalanche – $205 million – NHL
108. Calgary Flames – $200 million – NHL
109. Ottawa Senators – $197 million – NHL
110. Tampa Bay Lightning – $191 million – NHL
111. San Jose Sharks – $184 million – NHL
112. Washington Capitals – $183 million – NHL
113. Carolina Hurricanes – $177 million – NHL
114. St. Louis Blues – $176 million – NHL
115. Buffalo Sabres – $170 million – NHL
116. Edmonton Oilers – $166 million – NHL
117. Coumbus Blue Jackets – $165 million – NHL
118. Florida Panthers – $159 million – NHL
119. Nashville Predators – $156 million – NHL
120. New York Islanders – $149 million – NHL
121. Atlanta Thrashers – $143 million – NHL
122. Phoenix Coyotes – $138 million – NHL
Overall NFL franchise value – $33,795 million
Overall MLB franchise value – $14,466 million
Overall NBA franchise value – $11,384 million
Overall NHL franchise value – $6,677 million
Overall Big 4 franchise value – $65,902 million
Average (mean) NFL franchise value – $1,043 million
Average (mean) MLB franchise value – $482 million
Average (mean) NBA franchise value – $379 million
Average (mean) NHL franchise value – $223 million
Most average (mean) NFL franchise – Carolina Panthers (+6 million over mean)
Most average (mean) MLB franchise – St. Louis Cardinals (+5 million over mean)
Most average (mean) NBA franchise – Miami Heat (+15 million over mean)
Most average (mean) NHL franchise – New Jersey Devils (exactly at mean)
From all of this, a few things should really pop out.
First of all, it should be readily apparent that the NFL is the king. 9 out of the top 10 highest valued franchises are in the NFL, 19 of the 20 franchise worth over $1 billion are in the NFL, 28 out of the top 30 franchises are in the NFL, and the lowest valued franchise in the NFL is still worth more than all but 3 of the 30 MLB teams, all 30 NBA teams, and all 30 NHL teams. On top of all that, the combined value of the entire NFL is worth than a billion dollars more than the combined value of the entire MLB, NBA, and NHL ($32,527 million)
Second, there can be no possible denial of the fact that the NHL is the runt of the Big Four professional sports in North America. Only 1 of the top 50 highest valued franchises are in the NHL, only 7 of the top 100 franchises are in the NHL, and the 26 lowest valued franchises are all in the NHL. On top of all that, the average (mean) NFL franchise value is worth more than double the average MLB value, more than 2.75 times the average NBA value, and well more than four times the value of the average NHL team.
Third, if you do the math, you’ll see that Major League Baseball is, by far, the most unbalanced league in all of professional sports by three credible indicators. I have compared the highest valued franchise in each sport and compared it to the average (mean), the lowest valued franchise in each sport to the average (mean), and the highest valued franchise to the lowest valued franchise in each sport. Here are the results.
Highest/Mean (high = unbalanced)
MLB – 311.20%
NHL – 210.76%
NBA – 161.74%
NFL – 158.20%
Lowest/Mean (low = unbalanced)
MLB – 57.47%
NHL – 61.88%
NBA – 73.35%
NFL – 76.14%
Highest/Lowest (high = unbalanced)
MLB – 541.42%
NHL – 340.58%
NBA – 220.50%
NFL – 207.03%
All of this clearly indicates that Major League Baseball is the most unbalanced major professional sport in terms of franchise worth, not only from the top to the bottom and the top to the average (mean), but from the average to the bottom as well. Simply put, no team is so completely out of whack in regards to high value versus the rest of its league as the New York Yankees, and no team is so completely as lowly valued when compared to the rest of its league as the Florida Marlins.
Finally, all of that shows (at least in my honest opinion) the strength of the NFL’s current revenue sharing agreement. It is by far not only the most valuable league in North America, but it is also the most well-balanced from top to middle to bottom as well.
Grade school level math FTW.